The 2021-22 Premier League season has reached the business end of the campaign and the ‘run-in’ is going to be wild up and down the league.
Focusing on the top four battle, there are so many teams scrapping for fourth place.
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With Manchester City and Liverpool battling for the title, plus Chelsea sitting semi-comfortably in third, the likes of Arsenal and Tottenham are battling it out to finish in the top four, while Wolves, Manchester United, and West Ham see their chances sinking like stones. Heavy ones.
Below we focus on the standings, fixtures, and analyze the top four hopes for the teams in the hunt, and we will update this article each week between now and the end of the season.
Premier League run-in: Top four battle – As it stands
3rd: Chelsea – 65 points (32 games) GD +40
4th: Arsenal – 60 points (33 games) GD +12
5th: Tottenham – 58 points (33 games) GD +18
6th: Manchester United – 54 points (34 games) GD +2
7th: West Ham – 52 points (34 games) GD +8
8th: Wolves – 49 points (33 games) GD +4
Chelsea
Thomas Tuchel’s men are nailed on to finish in the top four. It’s going to happen. They had a wobble in November/December which cost them in the title race, but they have settled down and will easily finish third.
Remaining games: Man United (A), Everton (A), Wolves (H), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Watford (H).
Rating their chances: 98 percent
Tottenham Hotspur
Antonio Conte has voiced his concern (many, many times) over the quality of the squad Spurs have, but they have a very good chance of finishing in the top four and even he’s acknowledging it after a solid bounce back win over West Ham. They simply have to beat Arsenal — those North London derbies are often straightforward — and they have a trip to Liverpool late in the season. Aside from that they have a very winnable run of games. If Harry Kane and Heung-min Son stay on their hot streak and the team can improve defensively, Spurs have a chance. It will likely come down to their meeting against Arsenal. That is going to be tasty.
Remaining games: Leicester (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (H), Norwich City (A).
Rating their chances: 50 percent
Arsenal
The North London derby is likely to determine whether Arsenal or Tottenham goes to the UEFA Champions League. That’s it. That’s the lead. Man United is also remaining on the schedule but that fixture doesn’t look as daunting as usual, does it? They are prettysolid defensively and Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, and Smith Rowe have started to chip in with goals. They will have to keep sharing the goals around if they’re going to finish in the top four, but they have a very good chance.
Remaining games: West Ham (A), Leeds (H), Tottenham (A), Newcastle United (A), Everton (H)
Rating their chances: 50 percent
Manchester United
Ralf Rangnick’s side are struggling for creativity, confidence, and consistency. They have a pretty tough run-in too; The Red Devils beat Tottenham but still have Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea all to come. The problems are mounting late in the season: United’s defensive unit is all over the place, Cristiano Ronaldo looks far from happy under Rangnick (but scored a hat trick in a big win against Spurs) and the interim head coach looks very unlikely to be in charge next season. It’s all a bit of a mess.
Saying all of that, Sancho, Fernandes, Pogba, and Ronaldo could all deliver the goals and big moments they need to win games. They probably need to win at least six of their final nine games to finish in the top four. That seems unlikely. It is now or never for United, and there’s only one direct rival on the docket in Arsenal (and that’s away). There’s a lot of work to do here but also a chance at a real run of points with Norwich, Brentford, and Brighton sandwiched around a huge visit to Arsenal.
Remaining games: Chelsea (H), Brentford (H), Brighton (A), Crystal Palace (A)
Rating their chances: 1 percent
West Ham United
The Hammers are hanging in there, just about, but it feels like their continued Europa League triumphs are going to catch up with them. They certainly did against Tottenham, but the Irons will also have the chance to directly affect the hopes of top-four rivals Arsenal and Spurs.
With games against Chelsea and Arsenal still to come, West Ham has a chance to make up ground on the teams around them. They need to win the other five games, which they could, and then their fate will be decided on how they get on against Tottenham and Arsenal in particular. David Moyes’ side will be delighted with a top-six finish but they are the one team in this battle who have nothing to lose and actually. If Declan Rice stays on top form and Michail Antonio gets back to his best, they have a chance.
Still the Champions League route best for them would be winning the Europa League.
Remaining games: Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Norwich (A), Man City (H), Brighton (A)
Rating their chances: <1 percent
Wolves
We almost removed Wolves from the page altogether after the loss at Newcastle. Bruno Lage’s side has run out of steam in attack and has lost two of their last three (to Leeds and Newcastle, to boot). They have a tough run-in and if they finish in the top seven they will be delighted with their season.
Remaining games: Brighton (H), Chelsea (A), Norwich City (H), Liverpool (A). Date TBD: Manchester City (H).
Rating their chances: <1 percent
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